Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Valid 00Z Fri May 15 2020 - 00Z Sun May 17 2020 ...Numerous showers and storms expected from Texas to the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the end of the week... The weather pattern the remainder of the work-week will be characterized by high pressure over near the Southeast coast and waves of upper-level disturbances traversing the northern U.S. within zonal flow aloft. This allows for a channeling of Gulf of Mexico moisture into the Heartland and Great Lakes going into the weekend. Showers and storms are expected to continue this afternoon as a frontal system swings by to the north. A Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall is in place from northern Missouri to the greater Chicago area, while Slight Risks for both severe weather and excessive rainfall have been issued today from the Central Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. This same storm system will then head for the Northeast on Friday, thus shifting the severe threat into the region. Meanwhile, a cold front over the Middle Mississippi Valley is expected to ignite additional showers and thunderstorms on Friday before stalling over the region early Saturday. The Southern Plains are primed for more thunderstorms today and persisting into Saturday, some of which could be severe. After a remarkably chilly start to May for much of the East, summer-like conditions have returned today in the Ohio Valley as a warm front lifts north of the region. As this front heads to the north tonight, it will be the Mid-Atlantic's turn to welcome a surge of warmer than normal temperatures on Friday. The Mid-Atlantic should expect another warm day on Saturday while New England contends with yet another day of cooler temperatures thanks to a cold frontal passage Friday night. Elsewhere, rounds of showers are likely from far northwest California to western Washington this evening as steady onshore flow brings beneficial rainfall to drought stricken areas of the Pacific Northwest. A brief bubble of high pressure will build in on Friday before another push of precipitation arrives this weekend. Speaking of "drought stricken", dry and warm conditions continue for the southwestern quadrant of the U.S. that support elevated fire weather conditions in the Four Corners region and southern High Plains today. Dry conditions are also anticipated throughout much of the Southeast as high pressure dominates the region the rest of the week. By this weekend, focus shifts to the Bahamas as the potential exists for a subtropical storm/depression to develop off the Southeast coast. Mullinax/Hamrick Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php