Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 415 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020 Valid 12Z Fri May 15 2020 - 12Z Sun May 17 2020 ...There is an enhance risk of severe thunderstorms over the Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England... ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and Central High Plains... ...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Western Gulf Coast and Oklahoma... A quasi-stationary front over the Southern Plains is connected to a front over the Great Lakes/Northeast that will move southward across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic that will begin to return northward as a warm front over the Western Ohio Valley by Sunday. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward east of the quasi-stationary front over the Southern Plains through Sunday, where the SPC an WPC has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall. Large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind will be the main hazards with the severe thunderstorms. The associated heavy rain will produce scattered, mainly localized, flash flooding over parts of the Western/Central Gulf Coast and Oklahoma. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the southward moving front over the Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Low pressure over the Great Lakes will move into the Northeast by Friday evening. The SPC has issued an enhance risk of severe thunderstorms over the Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England with a slight risk continuing into the Eastern Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes. The major threat will be hail, damaging wind, and possible tornadoes. Elsewhere, Upper-level energy over the Pacific northwest will move to the Northern Plains by Saturday morning. The system will produce rain and highest elevation snow over parts of the Northern Rockies into parts of the Northern/Central High Plains through Saturday morning. Rain will move into the Northern/Central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday moving into parts of the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. Additionally, a front moving on shore over the Pacific Northwest overnight Friday will try to move inland but will be mainly over parts of the Pacific northwest into Northern California by Sunday. The system will produce rain over the area on Saturday into Sunday morning. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php