Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020 Valid 00Z Sat May 16 2020 - 00Z Mon May 18 2020 ...Severe weather and flash flooding forecast across the Southern Plains today and tonight, with storms continuing into the weekend... ...Severe weather likely for the Lower Great Lakes region to Northeast today... ...Surface low near southern Florida is being monitored for tropical development... Thunderstorms are expected for much of the Plains today and tonight, but the main focus will be across the Southern Plains. There, ahead of a front and dryline, an Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in place from the Storm Prediction Center, mainly for high winds and hail, though a few tornadoes are possible. Additionally, heavy rain of 1 to 3 inches could cause flash flooding over portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Heavy rain will move slowly eastward over the weekend, moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday. Ahead of a frontal system, thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley to the Northeast this evening into tonight. Severe weather is forecast, with an Enhanced Risk outlined by the Storm Prediction Center for parts of New York and New England. Tornadoes, high winds, and hail are all threats with these storms. The front is expected to push southward and then meander across the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend, connected to a surface low that will strengthen over the Midwest Saturday into Sunday. Rain and thunderstorms should increase in coverage with this low, and locally heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms are possible for the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley over the weekend. Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast from the Northern/Central Plains to Upper Great Lakes behind the low, but farther west over the Great Basin and Rockies, upper-level ridging will lead to high temperatures around 15 degrees above normal. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low pressure system with tropical characteristics over southern Florida. This could become the first tropical or subtropical cyclone for the 2020 season. The low is expected to track north-northeastward, east of the Florida peninsula. Regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across the Florida Keys and portions of southeastern Florida. Please see the National Hurricane Center's website for more information. In the West, an approaching upper-level low and associated front will increase precipitation chances for the Pacific Northwest and northern California on Saturday and spreading eastward on Sunday. Rain totals could be up to 2 inches in portions of northern California and far southwestern Oregon. Mostly rain is expected, with some snow possible in the highest elevations. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php