Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 404 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 Valid 00Z Tue May 19 2020 - 00Z Thu May 21 2020 ...A slow-moving system is likely to produce very heavy rains and flash flooding from the Ohio Valley to western Virginia and the Carolinas... ...Tropical Storm Arthur to produce dangerous surf conditions and rip currents along the Mid-Atlantic coast... ...Flooding possible across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies... ...Critical fire weather conditions to continue across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners Region... A slow-moving system will continue to produce heavy rains across portions of the Ohio Valley on Monday before shifting into the southern Appalachians, Carolinas, and western Virginia on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system is expected to produce several inches of rain, with flash flooding likely, especially across portions of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio on Monday and then across parts of the western Carolinas and Virginia Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition to heavy rains, there is also the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop, especially across portions of eastern Kentucky and central Ohio Monday afternoon and evening. Farther east, Tropical Storm Arthur will continue to track east away from the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are forecast to spread north along the Mid-Atlantic coast and persist during the next couple of days. Meanwhile, an upper level low moving east from the eastern Pacific is expected to produce widespread precipitation across the western U.S. This includes higher elevation snow, with several inches forecast to accumulate across the higher peaks of the Sierra. Significant rainfall accumulations are forecast for portions of the Sierra foothills and the interior valleys of California -- raising the potential for flash flooding across those areas. Significant rains along with snowmelt will also raise flooding concerns across portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions will prevail across the Southwest -- promoting elevated to critical fire weather conditions across much of the Southwest through the Four Corners region on Tuesday. Pereira Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php