Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Valid 00Z Wed May 20 2020 - 00Z Fri May 22 2020 ...Copious amounts of rain to soak the eastern Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic... ...Arthur exits stage-right, but lingering coastal impacts look to continue through Thursday... ...Daily episodes of severe weather to transpire in the Great Plains, Critical fire weather conditions stick around across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners Region... A cut-off upper level low is dousing the Ohio Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic with bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms. The storm system's seemingly endless supply of moisture and slow movement is a recipe for flooding concerns in these regions through mid-week. Moderate Risks for excessive rainfall remain in place for the eastern Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians this evening. The heavy rain threat becomes more focused in the southern Mid-Atlantic tomorrow where a Moderate Risk fore excessive rainfall is also present. There is also the potential for some severe weather in portions of the Southeast this evening and again on Wednesday. By Thursday evening, rainfall amounts could exceed seven inches in parts of the southern Appalachians. River flooding in parts of southeast Virginia and the western Carolinas could become increasingly problematic late week. While Arthur looks to track further south and east away from the U.S. over the next couple days, the pressure gradient it and the upper low over the southeast is generating with strong high pressure to the north sets the stage for prolonged onshore winds along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Coastal flood warnings and advisories continue for the Virginia Tidewater and much of the lower DelMarVa peninsula. Potential impacts include flooded roads, beach erosion, and inundated homes and businesses. Farther west, severe weather is forecast to become a daily occurrence in the Great Plains through week's end. A cold front should trigger strong-to-severe storms in western Montana and north-central Idaho this evening. Meanwhile, a slow progressing frontal boundary will be the catalyst for thunderstorms up and down the High Plains today, Wednesday, and again on Thursday. The front's slow nature could also lead to flash flooding concerns in the northern and central High Plains. To the south, dry and windy conditions will prevail across the Southwest, promoting elevated to critical fire weather conditions across much of the Southwest through the Four Corners region through Wednesday. Mullinax Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php