Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 245 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 Valid 00Z Tue May 26 2020 - 00Z Thu May 28 2020 ...A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the eastern Florida peninsula into Monday tonight... ...Severe weather and heavy rain causing flash flooding is possible across the Plains and Mississippi Valley... ...Excessive heat builds in the West with record-setting warmth also possible in the Great Lakes region... Over portions of Florida, an area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure area in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will lead to widespread heavy rainfall through tonight. A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the Atlantic side of the state where the strongest onshore flow resides, and Flood Watches are in effect. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to spread toward the Georgia and the coast of the Carolinas through Wednesday as the low pressure system drifts across the Florida Peninsula offshore the Southeast before weakening near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts as it becomes embedded within a frontal zone/the leading edge of a wedge of cool high pressure east of the Appalachians and dampens out with time. The associated flash flood risk is considered marginal there on Tuesday and Wednesday as the heaviest rainfall is expected to remain offshore. A front is forecast to meander across the Plains/Midwest through Wednesday, providing a focus for strong to severe thunderstorms that could cause flash flooding for the parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley. A broad swath of the region has flash flood watches in effect from the ArkLaTex northward though Kansas City into Nebraska. Severe weather is forecast to focus mainly in Texas Monday afternoon and evening, but strong storms cannot be ruled out northward to the Great Lakes region on the top ridge of a Northeastern ridge. On Tuesday, the heaviest rainfall totals are expected in the ArkLaTex, where flash flooding will remain possible. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could also occur farther east into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and the Southeast. Hot temperatures will be seen across portions of the United States through Wednesday. Heat is expected to build under two upper-level ridges, under the one in the West and the northern portion of the other in the Great Lakes & New York. Excessive heat is possible for California Monday afternoon and evening spreading into the Southwest Tuesday and across much of the West through the remainder of the week. Widespread record hot low and high temperatures will be set. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region, including portions of New York, should see high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal today and Tuesday and record highs are possible there as temperatures soar well into the 80s. In between, a slow-moving upper-level low should cause below normal temperatures in the Southern Plains for the next few days and a wedge of high pressure along with rainfall/cloudiness should keep temperatures more moderate from Southeast Coast into the southern Mid-Atlantic States. Roth Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php