Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 Valid 12Z Wed May 27 2020 - 12Z Fri May 29 2020 ...Severe weather expected for Texas today and flash flooding possible in the Midwest Thursday as thunderstorms continue... ...Heavy rain could lead to flash flooding in the Carolinas and western Virginia today... ...Record-breaking heat continues in the West while much above average temperatures are forecast for the interior Northeast as well... A frontal boundary will continue to meander across the Mississippi Valley today and eventually get overtaken by fronts farther west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the fronts and eastward, and locally heavy rain is possible. Severe weather should focus today over central Texas, where the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked an Enhanced Risk of severe weather. Very large hail and high winds are the main threats, but some tornadoes are possible too. Then on Thursday, the next incoming cold front is expected to provide a focus for heavier rain across the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes region. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is in place there tomorrow. A surface low pressure system is expected to drift northward across coastal Georgia and South Carolina today as tropical moisture flows into the region. This will lead to rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts, over portions of the Carolinas and western Virginia into the Appalachians through tonight. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding is in place for these areas, portions of which have received ample rainfall recently so soils may be nearly saturated. An upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the West, leading to high temperatures of 10 to 20 degrees above average over California, the Southwest, and the Great Basin. Widespread record highs and high minimum temperatures will be set, and Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect with temperatures well above 100 degrees in some areas. Meanwhile, the interior Northeast can also expect anomalous warmth underneath another upper-level ridge, as temperatures approach or even exceed 90 degrees today. Maine should remain warm tomorrow. In between, an upper-level low should keep temperatures slightly below average in the Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley. The rain and cloudiness will keep cooler temperatures across the Carolinas today as well. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php