Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Valid 00Z Thu Jun 04 2020 - 00Z Sat Jun 06 2020 ...Severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible from the Plains to Mid-Atlantic through Thursday... ...Excessive heat continues across the Southwest while warmer than average temperatures overspread much of the country... ...Tropical moisture streaming into Florida could cause locally heavy rainfall and flooding... A frontal boundary is forecast to meander across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast through Thursday, while a cold front tracks through the north-central U.S. as well. Both these features will help develop thunderstorms in the central and eastern U.S. over the next couple of days. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a Slight Risk of severe weather across the Northern/Central Plains eastward into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys toward a small Enhanced Risk over the northern Mid-Atlantic states through tonight. The potential for strong winds is the main threat in the east, while large hail is possible in the Plains. On Thursday, a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is again in place for portions of the Plains to Mississippi Valley. Locally heavy rain and some flash flooding is possible today over the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys to the northern Mid-Atlantic, and tomorrow the threat for heavy rain should shift toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic once again. A warmer than average pattern is expected to persist across much of the nation through Friday. Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of the Southwest and Heat Advisories over portions of California are in effect through Thursday, before an upper-level low approaches and cools down especially the Pacific coast by Friday. In conjunction with the warm temperatures, the Intermountain West and Southwest could see elevated to critical fire danger. High temperatures of 10 to 20 degrees above average will be widespread across the Intermountain West and Plains through Friday, and record high minimum and maximum temperatures could be set. Temperatures should be several degrees above average over the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as well. Though Tropical Storm Cristobal is far south of the continental U.S. over southern Mexico at this point, associated tropical moisture will lead to rain and thunderstorms across Florida over the next few days. Locally heavy rain and some instances of flooding and flash flooding are possible with slow-moving storms and temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal. Widespread heavy rainfall should ramp up this weekend across the Gulf Coast as Cristobal moves northward. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php