Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 14 2020 - 12Z Tue Jun 16 2020 ...Rain and thunderstorms expected across the Southern/Central Appalachians and Southeast... ...Cool and damp conditions in the Northwest, hotter and stormy in the North Central U.S... ...Critical Risks of fire weather continue in the Four Corners and High Plains today... High pressure in control over much of the eastern U.S. makes for a cooler and mostly dry Sunday and Monday from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Farther south, however, a stalled frontal boundary draped along the Southeast coast and a developing upper-level low in the eastern Ohio Valley look to generate wet weather across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Rainfall totals through early Tuesday morning are forecast to be highest along the coastal Carolinas where 2 to 4 inches of rain expected. Rainfall rates could become intense at times with the potential for localized flooding both Sunday and Monday. Heavy showers and thunderstorms should extend as far south as South Florida both Sunday and Monday. To the west, upslope flow as a result of the developing upper low over the eastern Ohio Valley leads to periods of rain in the southern and central Appalachians. Rainfall totals could range between 1 to 2 inches in southern West Virginia, southwest Virginia, and western North Carolina. In addition to the rain, very cool temperatures for mid-June are expected to persist into the first half of the week. The Northwest will also contend with its own stretch of cool and dreary weather thanks to a pair of upper-level disturbances tracking overhead. Precipitation will fall primarily in the form of rain, but some snow could fall in the Northern Rockies and Cascades due to the considerably cooler temperatures. Sandwiched between the cooler temperature regimes in the Northwest and the East are hotter than normal temperatures enveloping the Plains and Upper Midwest today and into the first half of the week. A passing cold front looks to trigger thunderstorms over the northern Plains today, most notably in the Dakotas where a Slight Risk for severe weather is in place. The threat for severe storms diminishes over the North Central U.S. on Monday, but still cannot be ruled out. Ahead of the western trough, gusty winds and low humidity levels are forecast across the Southwest, Rockies, and Plains. Some thunderstorms are possible over the southern and central Rockies but little in the way of beneficial rainfall is expected. Critical fire weather is expected in portions of the Four Corners states and the Southern/Central High Plains today as Red Flag Warnings are in effect. Elevated risks for fire weather conditions are likely to continue into the first half of the upcoming week due to the continual presence of upper level troughing over the Northwest. Mullinax Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php