Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 353 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 15 2020 - 12Z Wed Jun 17 2020 ...Soaking rainfall, potential for flash flooding in eastern North Carolina... ...Cool and damp conditions for the Northwest, drier conditions and warming temperatures in the Great Lakes and Northeast... ...Severe weather possible in the northern Plains along with ongoing summer heat... ...Critical Risks of fire weather continue in the Great Basin and Four Corners regions... A stalled frontal boundary draped along the Carolina coast and a cut-off upper level low over the eastern Ohio Valley will work in tandem to make the first half of the week a wet one in the Southeast. The heaviest rainfall totals through Wednesday morning are forecast to be over eastern North Carolina where 3 to 5 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible. The combination of elevated moisture content, deep convection, and overly saturated soil are a recipe for flash flooding, hence the Slight Risk areas for excessive rainfall in eastern North Carolina. In addition to the heavy rain, overcast skies and onshore/upslope flow should force temperatures to be considerably cooler than normal. Parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas may have a tough time surpassing the low 70s both today and Tuesday. The Northwest will also contend with its own stretch of cool and dreary weather thanks to a pair of upper-level disturbances tracking overhead. Precipitation will fall primarily in the form of rain, but some snow could fall in the Northern Rockies and Cascades due to considerably cooler temperatures than normal. Precipitation totals should range between 1 to 2 inches in favored upslope areas. Farther east, high pressure in control of Great Lakes to the Northeast will keep both regions mostly dry. Temperatures remain on the seasonally cooler side again today but should moderate closer to near normal levels by Tuesday. Stuck in between these cooler temperature regimes is upper level ridging over the northern Plains and build into the Midwest through the first half of the week, causing abnormally hot conditions to take shape. Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Upper Midwest this afternoon ahead of a weakening frontal boundary. The next round of severe weather arrives in the northern High Plains on Tuesday as a new area of low pressure develops over the region. Meanwhile the Southwest, Rockies, and south-central High Plains remain mired in a pattern favorable for enhanced fire weather conditions with prolonged gusty winds, low humidity, and drier than normal conditions. Isolated diurnal thunderstorms are possible over the Southern Rockies, but little in the way of beneficial rainfall is expected. Critical Risks of fire weather are in place for portions of the Great Basin and Four Corners states through Tuesday, along with a long stretch of Red Flag warnings from California's central Sierra Nevada to the central High Plains. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue into the first half of the upcoming week due to the continual presence of upper-level troughing over the Northwest. Look for favorable fire weather conditions to persist into the middle of the week over the Four Corners region. Mullinax Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php