Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Thu Jul 02 2020 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 02 2020 - 12Z Sat Jul 04 2020 ...Heat Advisories in effect for the south-central U.S. with above normal temperatures likely northward into the Midwest... ...Showers and thunderstorms expected over portions of the central and eastern U.S., with severe weather and flash flooding ramping up in the Northern Plains Friday... The overall upper-level pattern over the next couple of days will consist of a persistent upper-level trough over the Northwest, upper-level energy moving offshore from the Northeast, and an expanding upper-level ridge in between. Underneath the upper ridge, hot weather is expected in central and eastern parts of the country. Warm temperatures should combine with high dewpoints to create high heat indices in the Southern/Central Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, so Heat Advisories are in effect for those areas today. Above normal temperatures with highs in the 90s are forecast as far north as the upper Midwest and the interior Northeast through Friday. Meanwhile in the West, somewhat below normal temperatures are forecast, and northern Washington and Idaho as well as northwestern Montana will see highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal today. Through Saturday, showers and thunderstorms are expected along a stationary frontal boundary over portions of the Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, with some potential for flash flooding with localized heavier rain totals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also forecast for the Northeast over the next couple of days. In the north-central U.S., a front will push slowly through ahead of the western upper-level trough. Some rain and thunderstorms are expected there today, but the better chance for severe weather and flash flooding is on Friday, when the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe weather in place, and there is a Slight Risk of flash flooding too with rainfall totals over an inch. On the southern part of the western upper-level trough, southwesterly flow will lead to gusty winds and low humidity in the Central Great Basin today and into Friday. Thus, the Storm Prediction Center had delineated Elevated Risk of fire weather there. While the highest concentration of Saharan dust has dissipated, another round impacting the western and central Gulf Coast states today should persist through the end of the week. The primary impacts of the Saharan dust are hazy skies during the day, locally reduced visibility, degraded air quality, and the potential for vividly colorful sunrises and sunsets. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php