Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2020 Valid 00Z Fri Jul 03 2020 - 00Z Sun Jul 05 2020 ...Showers and thunderstorms will be most active over the northern Plains while scattered thunderstorms will persist from the Mid-South to the eastern Gulf Coast and northern Florida... ...Relatively quiet summer weather pattern expected for the rest of the country as we head into the Fourth of July weekend... The overall upper-level pattern across the country over the next couple of days will consist of a persistent upper-level trough over the Northwest, upper-level energy moving offshore from the Northeast, and an expanding upper-level ridge in between. Underneath the upper ridge, hot weather is expected in central and eastern parts of the country. Warm temperatures should combine with high dewpoints to create high heat indices in the Southern/Central Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, where Heat Advisories are in effect until early this evening. Above normal temperatures with highs in the 90s are forecast from the upper Midwest eastward into the interior Northeast through Friday. Meanwhile in the West, temperatures should average to around normal for July. Through Saturday, showers and thunderstorms are expected along a stationary frontal boundary from the Mid-South to the eastern Gulf Coast region and northern Florida, with some potential for flash flooding with localized heavy rain totals. Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for the Northeast as a back-door cold front dips down from eastern Canada before cooler and drier air arrives on Independence Day. In the north-central U.S., a front will push slowly through ahead of the western upper-level trough. Some rain and thunderstorms are expected into tonight, but the better chance for severe weather and flash flooding is forecast on Friday. On the southern part of the western upper-level trough, southwesterly flow ahead of a front will lead to gusty winds and low humidity will lead to areas of elevated risks in the Central Great Basin for the next couple of days. While the highest concentration of Saharan dust has dissipated, another round impacting the western and central Gulf Coast states should linger into the weekend. The primary impacts of the Saharan dust are hazy skies during the day, locally reduced visibility, degraded air quality, and the potential for vividly colorful sunrises and sunsets. Kong/Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php