Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 PM EDT Wed Jul 08 2020 Valid 00Z Thu Jul 09 2020 - 00Z Sat Jul 11 2020 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible for the Upper Midwest/Corn Belt into this evening and tonight... ...Critical Fire weather for parts of the Interior West... ...National Hurricane Center monitoring the low pressure system moving up the East Coast for tropical/subtropical development... A frontal system moving through the Plains will invade Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Along and ahead of the front, warm and juicy air will support the persistence and development of showers and thunderstorms. Heavier rainfall within more organized storms may lead to local flash flooding and ponding on roadways across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Kansas. Temperatures in the warm air mass will climb into the 80s and low 90s from the Corn Belt eastward to the central Appalachians. The system will move into the western Great Lakes on Thursday with scattered shower and thunderstorms. Across the South, a lingering frontal boundary will provide the focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from eastern Texas to the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. A strengthening surface low will be moving up the coast of North Carolina and the southern Mid-Atlantic States through Friday, which the National Hurricane Center gives a high chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone by Friday afternoon. The low will attempt to bring heavy rainfall near and north of its track, bringing a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall up the coast from North Carolina towards southern New England, with the highest risk of flash flooding across eastern North Carolina late on Wednesday into early Thursday. See Tropical Weather Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center for more on its potential to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Abundant cloudiness and increasing northeast winds will keep temperatures milder than average in the low to mid 80s. Over the Pacific Northwest, temperatures will continue cooler than normal as a weak cold front moves through and essentially reinforces the boundary across the Great Basin. For parts of the Four Corners region, Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected due to breezy conditions and low relative humidity values. Much warmer temperatures over west Texas may approach records each afternoon rising above 100F, with readings at or above 110F expected at Rio Grande Village. The Desert Southwest will be hotter still, with afternoon temperatures soaring into the 110s each afternoon, with lower 120s likely at Death Valley. Roth/Fracasso Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php