Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 409 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 14 2020 - 12Z Thu Jul 16 2020 ...Excessive heat across the Deep South will gradually become less intense during the next couple of days... ...Strong to severe thunderstorms with areas of flash flooding expected to progress slowly across the upper Midwest... ...A coastal low could bring locally heavy rain in parts of New England today... The excessive heat across the south-central U.S. is showing signs of abating during the next couple of days as a strong upper level ridge begins to weaken. The heat over Desert Southwest will be less intense today but record high temperatures remain likely today in the southern High Plains where the humidity is relatively low. However, humid air from the Gulf will make for another day of oppressive heat from eastern Texas to the central Gulf coast region, where heat indices in some locations will easily soar into the 110s in the afternoon. Another problem is overnight lows remaining oppressively warm and humid, with readings not falling below 80 degrees for areas near the coast and for many of the larger cities. Conditions should slowly improve in these area by Thursday. A cold front tracking southeastward from the north-central U.S. will clash with this hot and unstable airmass across the Plains, and therefore serve as a forcing mechanism for severe thunderstorms. Multiple thunderstorm complexes are expected to develop and result in episodes of high winds and hail, along with frequent lightning and potentially flooding rains. The area to watch during the next couple of days will be across the upper Midwest, reaching the lower Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Along the trailing end of the front, windy and dry conditions will likely support elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the Great Basin today, and parts of the southern High Plains for the next couple of days. Across the eastern U.S., seasonably hot and humid conditions today are expected to give way to increasing heat and humidity Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, showers and some thunderstorms associated with a coastal low could bring localized flooding in parts of New England today. The low should exit into the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday but the trailing front from the low could bring some additional showers and thunderstorms for parts of the Southeast through Thursday. Kong/Hamrick Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php