Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 423 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Aug 02 2020 - 12Z Tue Aug 04 2020 ...Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to skirt the East Coast and cause dangerous storm surge and flash flooding regardless of landfall or exact strength... ...Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the eastern half of the U.S. along a couple of frontal systems... ...Dangerous heat continues in the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West... Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to move northward and skirt the east coast of Florida today. While Isaias is no longer forecast to restrengthen into a hurricane, the impacts will remain essentially the same. Dangerous storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is expected in some coastal areas regardless of whether Isaias makes landfall in Florida. How much heavy rain occurs over eastern Florida will depend on the exact track it takes. Isaias is then forecast to move north toward the Carolinas and potentially make landfall there Monday night, causing high winds. Heavy rainfall totals are expected to cause potentially life-threatening flash flooding over the Carolinas and then the Mid-Atlantic Monday and Tuesday as Isaias moves north, and Moderate Risks of flash flooding are in place. Please see the National Hurricane Center for further and updated information on Isaias. A couple of frontal systems are forecast to cause rain and thunderstorms in the Midwest toward the Eastern Seaboard through tonight. The heaviest rainfall totals today are forecast for the Southern Appalachians, and a Slight Risk of flash flooding is in effect there. Farther north, a Slight Risk of severe weather is forecast for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Additionally, a Marginal Risk of flash flooding is in place for portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado, where scattered thunderstorms could cause locally heavy rainfall totals as they could be slow-moving. Another hot day is expected in the West underneath a persistent upper-level ridge. Temperatures in the 110s are forecast to persist in the Desert Southwest, leading to continued Excessive Heat Warnings in some areas there today. Heat Advisories stretch northward into the Intermountain West as temperatures over 100 degrees are possible and record highs could be set. Temperatures should remain warm on Monday except in the Northern Great Basin, where a cold front will help moderate temperatures. Meanwhile, cooler than average temperatures with highs only in the 70s are expected for the Northern/Central Plains toward the Midwest. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php