Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Valid 00Z Sat Aug 15 2020 - 00Z Mon Aug 17 2020 ...Flash flooding and severe weather are forecast over portions of the Midwest through tonight... ...Heavy rain and flash flooding are likely for parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... ...Record heat will be widespread across the western U.S. into parts of Southern Plains through the weekend... A front and low pressure system moving through the Upper Mississippi Valley are currently causing thunderstorms there, which will continue through this evening. An Enhanced Risk of severe weather remains in place across Minnesota, where tornadoes, wind, and hail are all threats, and a Slight Risk stretches back into the Central Plains along the front. The widespread heavy rain ongoing has led to a Moderate Risk of flash flooding for northern Minnesota as well. The heavy rain and severe thunderstorm threat should decrease there by tomorrow as the low pressure system moves into Canada, but scattered storms could continue for the Midwest into the Great Lakes region as the front moves eastward. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also possible across the Southern/Central Plains through the weekend, with rainfall totals less than an inch. A slow-moving front combined with very moist air will contribute to possibly multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms across the southeastern quadrant of the U.S. through the weekend. The heaviest rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected for the Southern/Central Appalachians eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Especially considering that some of these areas have seen heavy rainfall recently, a Slight Risk of flash flooding is in place through tonight, and a Moderate Risk has been delineated for Saturday across southern Virginia. In contrast to the wet weather in the East, hot and mainly dry conditions are expected for the western U.S. to Southern Plains underneath an upper-level ridge of high pressure. Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches and Heat Advisories are in effect for the West Coast, Intermountain West, and the Southern Plains, where record high minimum and maximum temperatures will be widespread. Over the weekend, temperatures in northern Texas will gradually moderate closer to normal (though a few record highs could still be set in the southern half of Texas through Sunday), while the Pacific Northwest will warm up significantly on Saturday, and the Great Basin should see temperatures above 100 degrees by Sunday. There is also an elevated threat of fire weather for parts of Montana, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, and Red Flag Warnings are in effect for Wyoming. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php