Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 509 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 Valid 00Z Tue Sep 01 2020 - 00Z Thu Sep 03 2020 ...Heavy rainfall and flash flood threat across parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, as well as across portions of southern Plains and Ozarks region... ...Heat advisories in effect for portions of the southern Plains... ...Locally heavy rain possible in the Southwest while fire weather becomes a threat across the northern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms, with areas of heavy rain and severe weather, are expected to continue from eastern Kansas and southern Missouri to central Texas through midweek. Another frontal boundary dropping southeast into the region is expected to stall -- supporting numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms, and the potential for heavy rainfall accumulations and flash flooding across the region. The heaviest amounts are expected to center from Northeast Texas across the Red River into southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, where several inches of rain is possible over the next couple of days. South of the front, above-normal temperatures are expected to persist across South Texas through midweek. With heat indices expected to top 110 degrees once again, heat advisories will remain in effect for portions of southern and eastern Texas on Tuesday. Meanwhile behind the front, a cooler than normal airmass if forecast to move southeast into the central Plains and mid Mississippi valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. In the East, ongoing heavy rains across portions of the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic are expected to continue across portions of the region through the evening into the overnight hours -- with localized flash flooding remaining a concern. Tropical Depression Fifteen, which has formed along the North Carolina coast, is expected to track further out to sea as it continues to develop over the next few days. Swells produced by the system are affecting portions of the North Carolina coast, especially along the Outer Banks. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions through Tuesday. Monsoonal moisture into parts of the Southwest will continue the threat for locally heavy rainfall through Tuesday, while a mostly dry front is expected to produce elevated fire weather conditions from central Montana to western North Dakota. Pereira Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php