Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 411 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Valid 12Z Tue Sep 01 2020 - 12Z Thu Sep 03 2020 ...Heavy rainfall with a flash flood threat likely the next couple of days from northern Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley... ...Heat advisories in effect for portions of the southern Plains through Tuesday... ...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions across parts of the northern High Plains Tuesday and Wednesday... A stalled frontal boundary from the Southern Plains to the Midwest will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms through midweek. The best chance for heavy rainfall should be from northern Texas into southern Missouri, where several inches of rainfall is likely the next couple of days. This would support a daily flash flood threat, with WPC highlighting much of this region within a slight to moderate risk through Wednesday. South of the front, above normal temperatures will persist across south Texas, with heat indices expected to top 110 degrees once again. Heat advisories remain in effect on Tuesday for portions of southern and eastern Texas. North of the front, below normal temperatures are expected from the central Great Basin eastward into the Central Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, although upper level ridging builds again by Wednesday across the region with temperatures returning above to well above normal from the West Coast states to the Northern Plains. A mostly dry front will drop in from Canada bringing with it gusty winds, and combined with the warm and dry conditions, would produce an elevated to critical fire weather threat through Wednesday. Widespread red flag warnings are currently in place across parts of the northern High Plains. In the East, numerous showers and storms will continue on Tuesday across the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic associated with a warm front lifting through the region. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Fifteen, which formed yesterday along the North Carolina coast is expected to track away from the East Coast the next few days. However, life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue through Tuesday, especially along the Outer Banks. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php