Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 417 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Valid 00Z Wed Sep 02 2020 - 00Z Fri Sep 04 2020 ...Heavy rain and thunderstorms extend from the Southern Plains Northeast... ...Fire weather risk for Northern Plains/Rockies... ...East and West coasts warm up while cool air dips into Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Most of the weather activity during the next couple of days will occur along a pair of surface fronts dipping down into the lower 48 from potent areas of low pressure across southern Canada. Heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms (some severe) will extend from the Southern Plains and Great Lakes today and into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast by tomorrow. Flash flooding may occur along the southern half of the surface front as it is expected to slow down considerably from the Southern Plains to the Midwest. Therefore, a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for parts of northeast Texas through southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas for today and tomorrow. A broader Slight Risk area of excessive rainfall stretches from central Texas to western Kentucky today and tomorrow before contracting again to encompass eastern Texas into southwestern Arkansas. 1-3 inches of rain may fall for northeastern Texas into Arkansas, while some isolated areas may receive up to 4 inches including the Dallas Fort-Worth area through Thursday. Slight Risks for severe weather are in effect for northern Texas and northeastern Arkansas for tonight while another slight risk is in effect for the DC to NYC I-95 corridor on Thursday. Much of the Northern Rockies and Plains are under an area of elevated fire weather risk. Critical fire weather conditions are likely along the foothills of the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains on Wednesday, due to a combination of acutely dry conditions and strong winds. Temperatures are expected to rise across the western states and east coast over the next couple of days. High pressure building in the west will contribute to temperatures being 15-20 degrees above average for much of Oregon by Thursday, while warm air will surge north along the East coast ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Cool air will surge south and into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on the backside of another low pressure system which is expected to develop along the current boundary draped over the Northern Rockies. Kebede Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php