Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 412 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2020 Valid 00Z Sat Sep 05 2020 - 00Z Mon Sep 07 2020 ...Heavy rain and scattered to severe thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest... ...Potentially record breaking heat in the West, Carolinas and Florida... ...Fire risk across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies/Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas and the Deep South through the weekend. Meanwhile an upper-level disturbance will descend over the Northern Plains from the Saskatchewan and bring a pattern of unstable weather to the Upper Midwest on Sunday. A surface low pressure system will develop along the foothills of the Rockies on Saturday and begin its march east. Heavy rainfall and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will spread out across the Upper Midwest ahead of the warm front which will be draped across the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley. Some thunderstorms may be severe as suggested by the Storm Prediction Center's Slight Risk area over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Rain rates may be high enough to justify the Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall issued for that same area. A second low pressure system will simultaneously track across southern Canada and eventually produce rainfall for the Northern Rockies through to the Upper Midwest beginning Sunday night. This system will be the next driver of precipitation and cooler temperatures for the Plains and Midwest next week. A large upper-level bubble of high pressure is currently situated over much of the West and is expected to remain in place through the weekend. This will lead to the likelihood of record breaking high and low temperatures across the region through Sunday night. High temperatures could reach up to 20-30 degrees above average for much of the west. The anomalous heat will not relent overnight as lows are expected to be well above average as well--particularly across California and the Great Basin. Lows will be in the upper 70s in Florida this weekend which may break records across the state. The fire risk in the Northwest remains elevated as dry and windy conditions will continue for the region through the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center issued area of Critical risk for a parts of southwestern Montana, eastern Idaho and northwestern Wyoming as favorable fire conditions appear to be particularly high in that area. Kebede Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php