Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Sep 13 2020 - 12Z Tue Sep 15 2020 ...Sally slowly strengthens while heading northwest towards the Central Gulf Coast... ...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley and over the southwest coast of Florida... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the Northern Rockies/High Plains and the Great Basin... ...There is a critical risk of wildfires over parts of the interior Pacific Northwest/Northern California and the Great Basin... Tropical Storm Sally just off the southwest coast of Florida will move northwestward to the Central Gulf Coast by Tuesday. Sally will have hazards of life-threatening storm surge, battering surf, inland flooding, hurricane force winds, and severe weather to parts of the Central Gulf Coast on Tuesday. The WPC has issued a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts the southwest coast of Florida. The heavy rain associated with Sally will produce mainly localized scattered areas of flash flooding from Sunday morning into Monday morning. Please see the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center for additional and updated information across this area. Residents within Sally's reach should monitor the storm's progress and follow the advice of local officials. Meanwhile, a front across the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valleys and extending into the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains will move eastward to the Northeast/mid-Atlantic Coast then drapped over the Tropical system over the Gulf Coast States by Monday. The boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great Lakes southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley. The WPC has issued a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts the Southern Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley. The heavy rain associated with the thunderstorms will produce mainly localized scattered areas of flash flooding from Sunday morning into Monday morning. The front then works its way into the Southeast on Monday with spotty showers and thunderstorms expected. High pressure builds in behind the cold front ushering in drier and cooler conditions throughout the Great Lakes and Northeast. Furthermore, an upper-level ridge over the Intermountain Region will aid in producing subsiding air over the region. The subsiding air will aid in producing stagnate over the region. The ongoing fires across the west have produce very poor and unhealthy air quality due to the large amounts of wildfire smoke. Therefore, dense smoke advisories and air quality alerts are posted over the Pacific Northwest, parts of California, and parts of the Great Basin. As the ridge moves east on Monday, so does the the dome of above normal temperatures as the Northern Plains get the brunt of the heat. Highs in parts of eastern Montana could reach the mid 90s (roughly 15-20 degrees above normal). Lastly, the fire weather forecast for Sunday remains at elevated to critical levels in portions of the West. An approaching Pacific system will bring with it an increase in humidity levels and a chance for beneficial rainfall to the Pacific Northwest late Monday into Tuesday, but much of California and the Great Basin will remain dry and breezy. This likely means more problematic fire weather conditions in these areas the first half of the week. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php