Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 449 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Valid 00Z Mon Sep 14 2020 - 00Z Wed Sep 16 2020 ...Sally to pose a life-threatening flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, High Risk for flash flooding on Tuesday... ...Cold front sparks showers and thunderstorms from the Tennessee Valley to the Northeast this evening, cooler and drier conditions arrive across the Great Lakes and Northeast early week... ...Hot temperatures in the northern Plains on Monday; wildfires and poor air quality continue over parts of the interior Pacific Northwest/Northern California and the Great Basin... Tropical Storm Sally is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and has its sights on the central Gulf Coast where it is forecast to make landfall Monday night. No matter whether Sally makes landfall as a tropical storm or a hurricane, the water-related hazards are expected to be biggest threats to life and property. The latest Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Monday shows a Moderate Risk for flash flooding from the mouth of the Mississippi River extending east along the coast to the Alabama/Florida border. Tuesday features a rare Day 3 High Risk area in eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and far southwest Alabama. The latest precipitation forecasts calls 10-20 inches of rain over the central Gulf Coast through Wednesday night with locally higher amounts possible where the heaviest rain bands set up. Locations just outside of the High Risk area are also at risk for prolific rainfall rates to could lead to life threatening flooding. Other hazards Sally looks to produce include life threatening storm surge, battering surf, tropical storm force winds, and a chance for tornadoes. Please see the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center for additional and updated information across this area. Residents within Sally's reach should monitor the storm's progress and follow the advice of local officials. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms are forming single file along a long cold front that extends from New England to the Mid-South. There remains a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall in the Tennessee Valley as thunderstorms could cause localized areas of flash flooding this evening. The front will usher in cooler and drier conditions across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Monday as high pressure builds in overhead. The front will inch south across the Southeast on Monday with part of the front becoming stationary over the Deep South through Tuesday. By Tuesday, almost the entire Eastern Seaboard is forecast to experience below normal high temperatures (the exception being the Florida Peninsula). The cold front does push through the Southern Plains providing west Texas with below normal temperatures through Tuesday. Out West, an upper-level ridge over the Intermountain Region continues to support the ongoing wildfires and poor air quality. As a result, dense smoke advisories and air quality alerts are posted over the Pacific Northwest, parts of California, and parts of the Great Basin. As the ridge moves east on Monday, so does the the dome of above normal temperatures as the Northern Plains get the brunt of the heat. Highs in parts of eastern Montana could reach the mid 90s. Lastly, the fire weather forecast for Sunday evening remains at critical to elevated levels in portions of the West. An approaching Pacific system will bring with it an increase in humidity levels and a chance for beneficial rainfall to the Pacific Northwest late Monday into Tuesday, but much of California and the Great Basin will remain dry and breezy. This has led to yet another elevated risk for fire weather across the Great Basin and northern Rockies on Monday. Mullinax Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php