Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1253 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 02 2020 - 12Z Sun Oct 04 2020 ...Heavy rains/flash flooding possible for parts of Florida through the weekend... ...Heat continues in the West... ...Autumn continues from the Midwest to the East Coast... A developing tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean sea/near Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico slings moisture north into a stationary front stuck across the Florida peninsula through the weekend. Combined with cooler air behind the front moving over warm Gulf Stream waters within a saturated airmass, the stage remains set for heavy rainfall/flash flooding particularly near the Gold Coast of the Sunshine State. A flood watch remains in effect there into the evening of October 4th/Sunday. A warm core ridge out West will be slow to fade through the weekend. This will lead to possible record high temperatures Friday and Saturday for the Western states, with the record high potential receding southward into the Southwest on Sunday as the northern portion of the ridge fades. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect along coastal California. When combined with continuing dry conditions, wildfire/brush fire concerns continue. Air Quality Alerts are also in effect for portions of the West Coast due to the combination of smoke from area fires and the high pressure ridge trapping pollutants near ground level. High pressure currently situated over the Plains will continue to drag cool continental Canadian air south across the central and eastern U.S. on the backside of a deep upper level trough. The upper trough itself will keep conditions unsettled, with some light precipitation expected through the weekend as a weak wave of low pressure progresses from west to east. A few spots may see record cool high temperatures across the Midwest on Friday. High wind gusts and dry conditions over the Northern Plains could lead to brush fires/an elevated risk of wildfires on Friday. Roth Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php