Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 328 PM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 Valid 00Z Thu Jan 14 2021 - 00Z Sat Jan 16 2021 ...Winter storm setting up over the Upper Midwest on Thursday and Friday... ...High Wind Warnings over Montana and portions of the Northern/Central Plains... ...Elevated to Critical fire weather possible over Southern California on Thursday into Friday... A developing storm will bring considerable snow over the Upper Midwest Thursday and into Friday. Rain and snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains overnight Wednesday. The snow will move into parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday, with rain and snow moving into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Thursday evening. There will be a few pockets of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Overnight Thursday, the rain will extend into the Tennessee Valley. The snow will continue over the Midwest on Friday, with some areas seeing 10 inches of snow over the Upper Mississippi Valley. By Friday evening, rain and snow will move into parts of the Northeast. On the west side of the storm, the pressure gradient will be strong, producing high winds. The NWS has issued High Wind Warnings over parts of the Northern High Plains and the Northern/Central Plains through Friday. The snow and wind will produce hazardous driving conditions. Meanwhile, high pressure builds over the Northern Intermountain Region as upper-level ridging develops over the West Coast. The ridging and downslope wind will aid in producing high temperatures in the mid-80s. A strong surface pressure gradient is expected across most of the Plains between a strong surface-high in the Great Basin and a low-pressure area traversing Southern Canada. This is expected to result in widespread windy conditions across most of the Plains/High Plains. A strong offshore pressure gradient is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across Southern California, resulting in 20 to 35 mph winds with 50+ mph wind gusts expected in terrain-favored areas of Southern California. These factors will contribute to an elevated fire weather risk for Los Angeles and Ventura counties, where the strongest winds are anticipated. Furthermore, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Friday morning, moving into the Northern High Plains by Friday evening. The system will produce rain and higher elevation snow over the Northwest and snow over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region on Friday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php