Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 232 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Jan 20 2021 - 12Z Fri Jan 22 2021 ...Improving wind and fire weather conditions for California... ...Heavy rains and possible flash flooding across portions of the Desert Southwest... ...Heavy rains developing across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast on Thursday... ...Lake effect snows diminish Wednesday but return on Thursday... Relief is in sight for California which has experienced damaging winds and critical fire weather conditions. The combination of the strong area of high pressure over the Great Basin and a strong low off the Southern California coast which have been responsible for the very windy conditions will be weakening on Wednesday. Strong winds and a fire weather threat will continue through Wednesday morning, with improving conditions by Wednesday night. As the area of low pressure off the Southern California coast pushes eastward into the northern Baja peninsula, the chance of heavy rains will be increasing to its northeast over portions of the Desert Southwest from southeast California into southwest Arizona. These heavy rains may produce localized flash flooding with these areas under flash flood watches. While the low moving into the northern Baja Peninsula produces rains over portions of the Desert Southwest, it will also be responsible for pushing abundant moisture eastward into the Southern Plains on Wednesday and into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. Light to moderate precipitation totals expected across the Southern Plains on Wednesday into early Thursday, while heavier totals developing across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coastal region during Thursday into early Friday. Heavy lake effect snows downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario are expected to diminish on Wednesday. However, the active lake effect snow pattern will return again on Thursday as favorable westerly to northwesterly flow develops across all of the Great Lakes in the wake of a fast moving cold front sweeping through the Great Lakes. This active lake effect pattern will continue into Friday with locally heavy snows downwind of all of the Great Lakes. Oravec Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php