Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 302 PM EST Tue Feb 09 2021 Valid 00Z Wed Feb 10 2021 - 00Z Fri Feb 12 2021 ...Bitter arctic air to remain entrenched across the north-central U.S. through the week while slowing expanding southward... ...Significant ice storm possible tonight into Thursday from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley... A cold and active weather pattern is expected to persist throughout the next several days across the country, with mainly the Southwest remaining warm and dry. Setting the stage for another frigid February day is a brutally cold arctic high pressure system located across the north-central United States. High temperatures will struggle to make it above zero from Montana to Minnesota through the next few days, with lows in the negative teens and negative twenties. Wind chills as low as -40 to -50 degrees can be found across far northern portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest due to the dangerous combination of very cold temperatures and light wind. Thus Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories stretch across the Northern/Central Plains to the Midwest. Temperatures well below average also reach southward to the Southern Plains and eastward to the Upper Ohio Valley. By Thursday this cold airmass is expected to filter slowly south across more of the south-central U.S., as well as the Pacific Northwest. On the southern edge of the arctic surface high and north of a frontal boundary stretched from the Southern Plains into the Southeast, freezing rain is forecast to develop. Significant ice accumulation could start developing in the Southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley tonight and quickly spread east-northeast to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. The areas with the best chance to receive 0.25" or more of ice extends from the Ozarks to the I-64 corridor in eastern Kentucky. Ice accumulation exceeding 0.50" is possible in some locations. This amount of ice will lead to hazardous travel conditions, power outages, and scattered tree damage. Slightly to the north, areas of light snow will be found across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic throughout Wednesday and Thursday. Through Thursday evening, the current forecast shows the highest snow totals of 6+" across the Central Appalachians. Meanwhile farther south along the aforementioned front, widespread rain showers and thunderstorms are expected across the southeastern U.S., which could lead to an inch or two of rain through Friday, as well as some flooding issues for the Southern Appalachians in particular. Elsewhere, light snow is expected to wind down this evening across the Northeast as the associated low pressure system pulls eastward into the Atlantic. However, lake effect snow is likely to continue downwind of Lake Ontario through Wednesday. Light snow is also possible across portions of the Central/Northern High Plains over the next couple of days. Then as a low pressure system moves toward the Pacific Northwest and increases moist onshore flow, increasing precipitation chances are expected on Thursday for the Northwest. Snow levels will be particularly low past the cold front in Washington, leading to the possibility of snow even in lower elevation areas like Seattle. Another hazard of note is Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions in the Southern Plains through this evening, and Red Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas. Tate/Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php