Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 321 PM EST Tue Mar 09 2021 Valid 00Z Wed Mar 10 2021 - 00Z Fri Mar 12 2021 ...Possibility for severe weather Thursday and Friday over portions of northern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri... ...Heavy snows likely Tuesday night into early Wednesday across portions of the California mountain ranges, Central Rockies, and portions of the Northern High Plains... ...Critical risk of fire weather in the Southern Plains and Southwest... ...Much above-normal temperatures likely into Friday across much of the central and eastern U.S.... A low pressure/frontal system extending from the Northern Plains to the Southwest will slowly move eastward, settling in the Upper Midwest and Central Plains Wednesday through Thursday morning. The system will produce moderate heavy snow over parts of the central Great Basin/Rockies Tuesday evening before spreading into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are currently in effect for eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico pulled northward over the Plains to the Upper Midwest will interact with the frontal boundary to produce moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Friday morning. These thunderstorms can become severe at times, with the greatest risk for severe weather isolated to the Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri borders. A secondary cold front positioned behind the main system will draw cool air southward over the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, creating the potential for freezing rain as rain changes over to snow with dropping temperatures. Elsewhere, short wave energy associated with a low pressure center positioned off the West Coast will provide the impetus for continuous showers and thunderstorms along the coast through Thursday. This shortwave energy will also drive moderate to heavy snow over the mountain ranges of California and the Oregon/Washington Cascades Tuesday and Wednesday. Snowfall totals of 1 to 2 feet are expected over the Sierra Nevada and the northwest California coastal mountains. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are currently in effect for portions of California. Over the Southwest and Southern Plains persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by a passing cold front Wednesday evening, combined with high winds associated with the frontal passage and a tight pressure gradient nearby will create a critical risk of fire weather throughout the period. Portions of southeast New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, northwest Oklahoma, southwest Kansas, and southeast Colorado will be at greatest risk for fire weather and currently have Red Flag Warnings in effect. Over the central and eastern U.S. much more mild temperatures are expected over the next few days, with high temperatures across these regions sitting on average 10 to 20 degrees above normal and reaching into 60s and 70s. The greatest departures will be likely over portions of the Central and Northern Plains as well as the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, where high temperatures could hit 30 to 40 degrees above average. On Thursday and Friday, these anomalously high temperatures will move to the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where temperatures will sit 20 to 25 degrees above normal. Zavadoff Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php