Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 10 2021 - 12Z Fri Mar 12 2021 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley through Thursday morning... ...Heavy snow from parts of the Northern/Central High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes through Thursday morning... ...Critical risk of fire weather in the Southern Plains and Southwest... ...Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average from parts of the Central Plains into Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes roughly southwestward to the Central Rockies will move eastward to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central Plains on Wednesday. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley through Thursday morning. The primary threat will be from frequent lightning, severe wind gusts, and large hail. A wave of low pressure will move northeastward along the front from the central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley by Wednesday night. Snow will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies that will expand onto parts of the Northern/Central Plains by the early afternoon and continue to expand into parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley by Wednesday evening. The snow will be heavy at times from the Central High Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley overnight Wednesday. The snow will slowly end from west to east on Thursday morning into Thursday evening. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average from parts of the Central Plains into Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will continue along the front from parts of the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes through Thursday evening. By Friday morning, rain will develop along the boundary from New England to the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Appalachians. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along and near the front from parts of the Southern Plains to the Middle Mississippi Valley also by Friday morning. In the meantime, an upper-level low will move onshore over the West Coast on Wednesday morning, moving to Southern California to the Great Basin by Friday. As the energy moves inland, rain will develop over parts of California as snow develops over the higher elevations. By Wednesday evening, the snow expands into parts of the Northern Intermountain Region into the Great Basin and into parts of the Northern/Central Rockies. Overnight Wednesday, the snow will be concentrated in the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central Rockies. On Thursday, the snow will pick-up again over the Sierra Nevada Mountains and taper off overnight on Thursday Night. The snow will extend from parts of the Southwest to the Central Rockies/Central High Plains by Friday morning. Elsewhere, over the Southwest and Southern Plains, persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by a passing cold front Wednesday evening, combined with high winds associated with the frontal passage and a tight pressure gradient nearby, will create a critical risk of fire weather throughout the period. Portions of southeast New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, northwest Oklahoma, southwest Kansas, and southeast Colorado will be at greatest risk for fire weather and currently have Red Flag Warnings in effect. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php