Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 324 PM EST Wed Mar 10 2021 Valid 00Z Thu Mar 11 2021 - 00Z Sat Mar 13 2021 ...Heavy snow likely for parts of the Upper Midwest through Thursday morning... ...Potential for severe weather over parts of the Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley... ...Flash and urban flooding possible from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley... ...Critical risk of fire weather in the Southern Plains and Southwest... ...Temperatures throughout the eastern U.S. will be up to 20 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday... A low pressure system with a frontal boundary extending from the Southwest to the Upper Great Lakes is forecast to slowly propagate northeast over the next couple of days. To the north and east of the primary low pressure center, cold temperatures and shortwave energy will work in tandem to generate moderate to heavy snow from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. While northeast Minnesota will likely receive the highest snowfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, widespread accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible across the affected areas. As such, Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories are in effect primarily in South Dakota and Minnesota until tomorrow morning. In Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Michigan Upper Peninsula freezing rain is also likely to develop due to rain changing over to snow as temperatures drop through the evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms will persist along the leading edge of the frontal boundary through Friday evening and could become severe at times. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for portions of the Central Plains and Mississippi Valley through tomorrow morning. The threat for severe weather will continue throughout the period, with the primary region of concern tomorrow being an area extending from northeastern Oklahoma to southern Illinois, while northern Texas, central Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and southwestern Missouri will be at greatest risk on Friday. These thunderstorms will also have the potential to cause flash and urban flooding due to their slow motion and high rain rates. At present, a Marginal Risk for flooding has been issued for portions of Northern Wisconsin and the Michigan Upper Peninsula. The risk for flash flooding will be carried throughout the period as the system is expected to move very slowly through the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys tomorrow and subsequently stall over the Southern Plains on Friday. Over the Southwest and Southern Plains persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by a passing cold front Wednesday evening, combined with high winds associated with the frontal passage and a tight pressure gradient nearby will create a critical risk of fire weather throughout the period. Portions of southeast New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, northwest Oklahoma, southwest Kansas, and southeast Colorado will be at greatest risk for fire weather and currently have Red Flag Warnings in effect. Elsewhere, short wave energy associated with a low pressure center positioned off the West Coast will provide the impetus for showers and thunderstorms along the coast and high elevation snow into tomorrow morning. Further inland, a second low pressure center will drive the development of snow throughout the Central Great Basin as well as the central and southern Rockies. The combination of these two low pressure centers into one system on Thursday afternoon will help prolong showers and thunderstorms in the Southwest and snow in the Intermountain West and central/southern Rockies into Friday. Over the eastern U.S. mild temperatures are expected on Thursday and Friday, with high temperatures across the region sitting reaching into 60s and 70s. The greatest departures from normal will be felt over the Midwest and Northeast, where high temperatures will be on average 10 to 20 degrees warmer than normal. Zavadoff Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php