Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 254 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 11 2021 - 12Z Sat Mar 13 2021 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through Saturday... ...Warm temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average found across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Friday morning... ...Significant winter storm to begin Friday evening into Saturday morning across the Central Rockies and central High Plains... ...Critical risk of fire weather for central and southern New Mexico... An area of low pressure currently located over the Upper Great Lakes is forecast to race northeastward into Canada today. Light snowfall associated with this system will gradually come to an end across the Upper Midwest and U.P. of Michigan. Meanwhile, a strong cold front is expected to push across the Ohio Valley today and make its way into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will rise into the 60s and 70s across the region, with many daily records in jeopardy of falling. Gusty winds and dry air, combined with the abnormally warm temperatures, could lead to an elevated fire weather risk. In fact, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued throughout portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Farther west, the aforementioned cold front will slow and eventually stall across the Southern Plains. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and remain over much of the same region throughout the next couple of days. Over an inch of rainfall can be expected through Saturday morning from North Texas to southern Indiana, with upwards of two to three inches of rain possible across south-central Missouri. WPC has issued a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall valid Friday to Saturday morning for this area due to the increasing threat of flash flooding. Along with the threat of heavy rain, severe thunderstorms will be possible over the next few days. SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms today from northeast Oklahoma to southern Illinois. Damaging wind gusts and large hail is expected to be the main threat with these storms as they develop this afternoon/evening along the frontal boundary. By Friday the severe storm threat shifts southwest and includes West Texas and southwest Oklahoma. SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across this region, with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes possible. On the dry side of the developing system across the southern High Plains, gusty winds will make for another day of fire weather concerns across central and southern New Mexico both today and Friday. A large upper-level low spinning above the southwestern U.S. will be the catalyst for an upcoming significant winter storm across the Central Rockies and central High Plains. Before the system fully develops this weekend, heavy snow could fall across the higher elevations of the Intermountain West and Southwest. Portions of Utah and Arizona could see over 6 inches of snow by Saturday morning. Heavy mountain snow and lower elevation heavy rain will also remain possible across southern California through Friday. As the upper-level low moves eastward, an area of low pressure is expected to develop across the central High Plains on Friday and produce heavy snow across central Colorado and southeast Wyoming this weekend. Light snow is forecast to develop Friday evening across the region; however, much of the winter weather impacts are forecast to occur later in the day on Saturday and throughout much of Sunday. Widespread travel impacts are likely. Winter Storm Watches have been issued and include southeast Wyoming, northeast and north-central Colorado, as well as western Nebraska. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php