Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 333 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Valid 00Z Mon Mar 15 2021 - 00Z Wed Mar 17 2021 ...Major winter storm to wind down over parts of the central Rockies to the north-central High Plains tonight... ...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain will shift towards the mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday then Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday... ...Critical fire danger continues across parts of New Mexico and western Texas... A low pressure system continues to intensify as it expands its impact with multiple forms of hazardous weather across the central portion of the country. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has been lifted ahead of a dynamic cold front which continues to trigger frequent bouts of severe thunderstorms across the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Farther north, heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms are expanding across the central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley ahead of a warm front associated with the intensifying low pressure system. Meanwhile, a major winter storm is currently in progress across the central Rockies and nearby High Plains on the back side of the storm system. Heavy snow and increasing winds are expected to wind down over much of the central Rockies to the north-central High Plains tonight, with additional light snow possible along the Front Range of Wyoming and Colorado. Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Advisories and Warnings continue to be in effect from the central Rockies to the north-central High Plains to the Black Hills of South Dakota. The storm should reach peak intensity soon as it begins to wobble eastward into the central Plains on Monday, and weakens. But in the mean time, strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to shift eastward into the Mississippi Valley tonight before losing intensity as it reaches the interior Southeast early on Tuesday. As the weakening storm pulls eastward, there will likely be a swath of freezing rain and mixed precipitation moving through parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, reaching the central Appalachians Tuesday morning. In addition, dry and strong downslope winds to the south of the storm are expected to promote elevated to critical fire danger across parts of the southern High Plains tonight. Outside of the major storm system, some light wintry precipitation is expected to wind down over interior New England tonight as reinforcing shots of colder air move in from Canada. Elsewhere, much above normal temperatures are forecast for the Deep South and Midwest ahead of the strong cold front. Out West, an active cold front from the eastern Pacific is expected to bring the next round of unsettled weather into much of the region through Monday. The Sierra Nevada should see heavy snow impacting the region tonight into Monday, as rain spreads into the lower elevations of northern and central California. The system will then spread mountain snow across the Great Basin and northern Arizona as well as the northern Rockies Monday night when colder air settles from west to east across the western U.S. By early on Tuesday, much of the Four-Corners region should see snow arriving while a low pressure system begins to take shape in the vicinity. This low pressure system will quickly organize into a mid-latitude cyclone as it pulls another stream of Gulf moisture up and into the Deep South Tuesday night, leading to increased instability and the chance for thunderstorm activity. Snow will pickup on the backside of this system over parts of the the Rockies and north/central High Plains. Kebede/Kong Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php