Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 421 AM EDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Valid 12Z Tue Mar 16 2021 - 12Z Thu Mar 18 2021 ...Heavy rains, isolated flooding and severe weather expected from portions of central/southern Plains to the Deep South through Wednesday night. ...Another round of mountain snow moving across the Southwest and into the central to southern Rockies through tonight... ...Fire weather threat continues today across the Southern High Plains... An active and volatile weather pattern continues as another compact but vigorous upper-level circulation moves across the Southwest. This feature will become the catalyst for yet another strong low pressure system to intensify over the mid-section of the nation during the next couple of days. The predecessor storm that brought the recent winter storm to the central Rockies and central High Plains will continue to weaken as it moves across the Ohio Valley this morning. Some light snowfall and icing amounts are expected to move across the lower Great Lakes to upstate New York today before the system dissipates while a new low pressure center forms off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Farther south, the weakening system will still carry some heavy rains and thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast through tonight. Meanwhile, mountain snows across the Southwest will spread into the central to southern Rockies tonight as the associated compact mid to upper level low moves toward the southern Plains. This system will not have as great a winter weather impact as its predecessor. However, 6 to 12 inches of snow can be expected across the higher elevations of southern Colorado to northern New Mexico through tonight. This system will be more impactful with respect to heavy rains, flash flooding and severe weather threats today into Wednesday across portions of the central/southern Plains and through the Deep South. Current estimates indicate that two inches or more of rain can be expected across Alabama into Georgia ahead of a strong cold front while another swath of heavy rain is expected from Kansas to southern Iowa to the north of the storm track. The Storm Prediction Center now predicts a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms across the interior Deep South on Wednesday. Some wintry precipitation is also expected across the north-central Plains early on Thursday along with strengthening winds from the north. Finally, high winds and low relative humidities will keep critical fire weather threat across the southern High Plains from eastern New Mexico into western and southwestern Texas. Kong Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php