Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Valid 00Z Tue Mar 23 2021 - 00Z Thu Mar 25 2021 ...Potentially heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely for the central U.S. over the next couple of days... ...Snow and cooler than average temperatures are expected for the Intermountain West and Rockies as a front passes through... ...Critical Risks of fire weather are in place for parts of the Southwest through Tuesday... A surface low pressure system is forecast to continue strengthening tonight and move northeastward across the central U.S. through Wednesday, spreading rain and thunderstorms along and ahead of its associated fronts across the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Through tonight, severe weather is possible with these thunderstorms for portions of the Southern Plains, where the Storm Prediction Center has delineated a Slight Risk. Locally heavy rainfall could cause some localized flooding throughout the Southern/Central Plains as well. On Tuesday, the Mississippi Valley can expect widespread showers and thunderstorms, continuing for the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday as a couple of fronts stall in the region and Gulf of Mexico moisture flows in. Through Wednesday, the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast area should see heavy rainfall of multiple inches, which could cause flooding/flash flooding--thus Slight Risks of excessive rainfall are in place Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong thunderstorms could also be a concern there. Additionally with this system, light snow is possible on the backside of the precipitation shield for some areas of the Northern/Central Plains, and the arrowhead of Minnesota could receive a few inches of snow through Wednesday. Rain may reach the East on Wednesday as that system approaches, along with another low meandering near the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southward across the West through Tuesday, helping cause rain and snow behind it, along with renewed below normal temperatures and the possibility of gusty winds. Quick-hitting snow of 6+ inches is forecast for higher elevations, especially the Wind River Mountains/Tetons and Bighorn Mountains tonight into Tuesday. Then as the front slows down, snow is expected to accumulate to over a foot across the Southern Rockies on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another front is forecast to come into the Northwest with additional precipitation on Wednesday. Conditions favorable for fire weather are expected to persist over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through Tuesday, as low relative humidities combine with gusty winds and dry fuels. Red Flag Warnings are in place, along with Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather. Thus any precipitation in those areas on Wednesday will likely be welcomed. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php