Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Valid 12Z Tue Mar 23 2021 - 12Z Thu Mar 25 2021 ...Heavy rain and thunderstorms to drench the Central Gulf Coast over the next couple of days... ...Mountain snow and cooler than average temperatures are expected for the Intermountain West and Rockies... ...Critical Risk of fire weather remains in place for parts of the Southwest today... A strengthening low pressure system in the Central Plains this morning is gradually tracking northeast while sporting an impressive areal extent of precipitation that stretches from the northern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. The central Gulf Coast most notably features the best odds of witnessing heavy rainfall rates and severe weather today. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for portions of the area today along with a Marginal Risk of severe weather. Severe storms and locally heavy rainfall rates are also possible in the middle Mississippi Valley. The occluded low over the Midwest Tuesday night heads into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, sending its associated shield of rain over the region throughout the day. Meanwhile, the storm's cold front will lift north as a warm front over the South Central U.S. Wednesday afternoon. This sets the stage for another round of severe weather Wednesday evening, highlighted by a Slight Risk for severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, another frontal boundary near the central Gulf Coast looks to produce more heavy rainfall embedded within strong thunderstorms. Yet another Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in place for roughly the same area that was under one on Tuesday. In totals through Wednesday night, over 5 inches of rainfall is possible from the eastern Louisiana to southern Alabama. Flash Flood Watches remain in effect for portions of the central Gulf Coast into the day on Thursday. Out West, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southward across the West today with a broad area of rain and snow behind, it in addition to a fresh injection of below normal temperatures and gusty winds. Quick-hitting snow of 6+ inches is forecast for higher elevations, especially the Wind River Mountains/Tetons and Bighorn Mountains tonight into Tuesday. The front will slow down over the Southwest Tuesday night ahead of an amplifying upper trough over the Four Corners region. This upper trough then triggers periods of mountain snow over the southern Rockies with totals ranging from 1 to 2 feet in the highest elevations of northern New Mexico. Another front is forecast to come into the Northwest with additional precipitation on Wednesday. The upper trough quickly weakens Wednesday evening, closing the door on additional snowfall in the southern Rockies but it does help to produce scattered showers in parts of the southern Plains. Elsewhere, conditions favorable for fire weather are expected to persist over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains today due to low relative humidities combined with gusty winds and dry fuels. Red Flag Warnings are in place, along with Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather. Some welcomed precipitation is anticipated over the next couple days. The Northwest will see yet another round of precipitation as a cold front swings through the region Wednesday evening where several inches of mountain snow is possible throughout the region. Lastly, high pressure supplying one more day of dry and mild conditions throughout the Northeast gives way to an approaching frontal system off the East Coast on Wednesday, delivering periods of rain to the region on Wednesday. Mullinax Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php