Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 336 AM EDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 24 2021 - 12Z Fri Mar 26 2021 ...Wet and stormy conditions to continue in the South today; confidence increasing in a severe weather outbreak across the Mid-South on Thursday, along with the persistent threat of flash flooding... ...Heavy mountain snow expected for the Southern Rockies this morning; Elevated Fire Weather Risks to stick around in parts of the Southwest... ...Unsettled weather and cool temperatures throughout much of the West; near record warmth likely in the Northeast and Florida on Thursday... A storm system tracking through the Midwest is responsible for producing areas of showers and thunderstorms in the Midwest this morning with some wintry weather also occurring in the northern Great Lakes and Northern Plains. This feature will lift northeast over the northern Great Lakes this afternoon and into southeastern Canada tonight leaving some light snow accumulations in its wake over northern Minnesota. Further south, a narrow band of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms that soaked portions of the central Gulf Coast over the last 24 hours will lose some of its punch this morning, but should redevelop later this afternoon as a boundary over the Gulf of Mexico lifts north towards the Gulf Coast. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall remains is in place over eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi today. Meanwhile, a potent upper level disturbance currently producing periods of heavy snow in the Southern Rockies will eject east into the southern High Plains this evening. An additional 6 to as much as 12 inches of snow is possible in the higher elevations of New Mexico and southern Colorado. As the winter weather threat concludes late in the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms look to develop this afternoon with some storms becoming severe in some cases. A Slight Risk for severe storms has been issued from the Storm Prediction Center for parts of the Ark-La-Tex region and southern Oklahoma, with heavy rainfall rates within these storms also possible in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night. As the upper trough ejects east on Thursday towards the Mississippi Valley, attention turns to the Mid-South where confidence is increasing in a severe weather outbreak transpiring the second half of the day. Intense thunderstorms are forecast to breakout across the Deep South and track towards the Tennessee Valley Thursday afternoon and into the evening hours. All modes of severe weather: tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are likely to be on display Thursday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has posted a Moderate Risk for severe weather over southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern Alabama, while an expansive Slight Risk area is in place from the central Gulf Coast on north into the Ohio Valley. In addition to the severe hazards, hydrologic hazards are also a concern as widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms may trigger areas of flash flooding. As a result, a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall is in place from northern Mississippi and Alabama on north into the Tennessee Valley. A myriad of weather hazards; both severe and rainfall, are a recipe for a dangerous weather setup in the Mid-South on Thursday. The severe threat may linger into Thursday night across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys while the Northeast contends with periods of rain overnight Thursday. Elsewhere, another frontal system ushers in more rounds of rain and mountain snow to the Northwest today. Snowfall accumulations over a foot are anticipated along the Cascades and the highest elevations of the northern Rockies. The front steadily pushes south on Thursday as an upper level trough plunges south into the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Expect more mountain snow to take shape in these regions on Thursday with light rainfall amounts in the lower elevations. Temperature-wise, the Intermountain West and Southwest will remain mired and below normal temperatures due to the active storm track and intrusions of colder air aloft. It is a very different story though along the East Coast, for once a nearby coastal low and its assortment of showers exits Wednesday night, a balmy air-mass rolls in courtesy of warm southerly flow. Daily record warm max and min temperatures may be broken in the Northeast on Thursday with the list of potentially record breaking warmth growing across the region on Friday. Even the Sunshine State may see a handful of record warm highs on Thursday as temperatures soar to above 90 degrees in some locations. Mullinax Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php