Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 320 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 25 2021 - 12Z Sat Mar 27 2021 ...A Tornado Outbreak is expected to occur later today in the Mid-South; a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in place in portions of the Tennessee Valley... ...Unsettled weather and cool temperatures throughout much of the West, gusty winds and blowing dust in the Desert Southwest today... ...Record warm temperatures to take shape up and down the East Coast by Friday... An active and dangerous day of weather is set to unfold across the Mid-South today, highlighted by a High Risk of severe weather issued by the Storm Prediction Center. The primary weather driver of this impending tornado outbreak is a strengthening area of low pressure out ahead of a sharp and intense upper level trough tracking into the middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley this evening. Powerful thunderstorms are forecast to blossom in the South this afternoon and track into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight. These intense thunderstorms are may contain a myriad of hazards that include violent long-track tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. In addition to the severe threats, hydrologic hazards are also a serious concern from northern Alabama and Mississippi to the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Torrential rainfall rates in these areas that also contain overly saturated soil is a recipe for flash flooding. As a result, a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is in place with a Moderate Risk located over northern Alabama, northwest Georgia, and southeast Tennessee. Residents in these areas should have a plan of action if severe weather threaten their respective locations. In addition, high winds from the lower Great Lakes to the northern Mid-Atlantic Thursday night into Friday morning. High Wind Watches are in place for portions of these regions as strong winds may result in downed trees and power lines. The impactful storm system responsible for Thursday's tornado outbreak heads for the Great Lakes tonight. The cold front is forecast to clear the Mid-South and Ohio Valley shortly after midnight, thus ending the severe threat for these regions as high pressure builds in from the west in the early morning hours tomorrow. By Friday, the cold front reaches the East Coast with a Marginal Risk of severe weather in place in the Southeast. Further north, a damp and gusty Friday is in the cards for the Northeast with drier conditions returning by evening and sticking around into Saturday. In the West, another upper level disturbance digging into the Southwest on Thursday will set off scattered showers and areas of mountain snow from the Northwest to the Four Corners region. This upper trough is also playing a role in favorable conditions for blowing dust in parts of the Desert Southwest today. This has resulted in the issuance of Wind Advisories and Blowing Dust Advisories for parts of far southern California and southern Arizona this afternoon. By Friday, the footprint of rain and mountain snow showers will decrease, but periods of snow look to continue in the central and southern Rockies. Snowfall totals through Friday night are forecast to be heaviest in the San Juan Mountains where 1 to 2 feet of snow are possible. Elsewhere, the higher ridge lines throughout the Intermountain West could receive up to a foot of snow over the next couple days. Temperature-wise, most of the western third of the CONUS remains seasonably cool today with a gradual warm-up arriving along the West Coast Friday and Saturday. On the flip side, the East Coast will feel more like late spring with highs in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast soaring into the 70s with even some highs even reaching the low 80s. Numerous daily record warm min temps are on tap from Florida to Maine on Friday with highs over 90 degrees possible across the Sunshine State. Mullinax Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php