Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Valid 00Z Fri Mar 26 2021 - 00Z Sun Mar 28 2021 ...A dangerous severe weather outbreak is ongoing across the Mid-South along with the threat of excessive rainfall into the Tennessee Valley and the Midwest, followed by high winds across the Ohio Valley... ...Unsettled weather and cool temperatures throughout much of the West as gusty winds and blowing dust subside in the Desert Southwest tonight... ...Record warmth expected along the East Coast on Friday... A rapidly intensifying low pressure system moving across the mid-section of the country toward the Great Lakes will continue to provide the ingredients for a severe weather outbreak into tonight across the Mid-South, where the Storm Prediction Center highlights a large area with a moderate to high probability of severe weather. Powerful thunderstorms, aided by a subtle warm front, are forecast to continue blossoming across the South and then tracking into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight. These intense thunderstorms may contain a myriad of hazards that include violent long-track tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. In addition to the severe threats, hydrologic hazards are also a serious concern from northern Alabama and Mississippi to the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Torrential rainfall rates in these areas that also contain overly saturated soil is a recipe for flash flooding. Residents in these areas should have a plan of action if severe weather threaten their respective locations. In addition, the low pressure system will become rather intense as it tracks across the lower Great Lakes tonight, bringing the threat of high winds from the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic tonight into Friday morning, where Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings have been issued for the possibility of downed trees and power lines. The center of the low pressure system will move steadily across northern New England on Friday with a soaking rain and embedded thunderstorms. The trailing cold front will move across the East Coast Friday morning with a marginal risk of severe weather that extends into the Southeast. In the West, another upper level disturbance digging into the Southwest will continue to set off scattered showers and areas of mountain snow from the Northwest spreading into the Four Corners and the central Rockies on Friday. This upper trough is also playing a role in triggering blowing dust in parts of the Desert Southwest into this evening. Snowfall totals through Friday evening are forecast to be heaviest in the San Juan Mountains where over a foot of snow is expected. By Saturday, the entire system in the West will exit into the Plains where Gulf moisture will once again make a return to trigger another episode of severe weather and heavy rain across the Mid-South. Meanwhile, a swath of rain together with mixed wintry precipitation is expected to spread across the northern Plains to the upper Great Lakes ahead of a wave of low pressure. Temperature-wise, most of the western third of the CONUS remains seasonably cool today with a gradual warm-up arriving along the West Coast Friday and Saturday. On the flip side, the East Coast will feel more like late spring with highs in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Numerous daily record warm min temps are on tap from Florida to Maine on Friday with highs over 90 degrees possible across the Sunshine State. Kong/Mullinax Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php