Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 422 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Valid 00Z Sat Mar 27 2021 - 00Z Mon Mar 29 2021 ...There is an embedded Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of upstate New York and Northern New England through Saturday morning... ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee Valley from Saturday into Sunday morning... A front along the East Coast will move off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight Friday while extending westward across the Southeast and the Gulf Coast State. The boundary returns northward as a warm front as the next storm moves out of the Plains. The front will help produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast on Friday evening, while areas of light snow will develop over parts of upstate New York and Northern New England through Saturday morning. The SPC has issued a Sight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of upstate New York and Northern New England through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with the thunderstorms are the possibility of low-top convection, frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gust, and a tornado or two. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, and the Central Gulf Coast on Friday evening. The showers and thunderstorms will continue over the southern Mid-Atlantic and the Central Gulf Coast while developing over parts of the Tennessee Valley overnight Friday into Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, a developing area of low pressure over the Central Plains will advance to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Saturday afternoon. The storm will move into Southeastern Canada on Sunday, while the associated front moves from the Middle Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday evening. The system will produce rain and scattered thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains on Friday evening. Associated upper-level energy will produce light snow over parts of the Rockies into the Southwest that will end overnight Friday. As the system moves into the Middle Mississippi Valley, the rain will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. In contrast, rain and snow develop over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday morning. By Saturday evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front over parts of the Ohio, Lower Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk with an embedded Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the region from Saturday morning to Sunday morning. The main hazards of severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gust, hail, and tornadoes. SPC thinks there will be a 10% or greater probability of EF2-EF5 tornadoes and two-inch hail in the enhanced region. Furthermore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee Valley from Saturday into Sunday morning. The heavy rain associated with the thunderstorms may produce scattered areas of flash flooding; with the most vulnerable areas are urban areas, roads, and small streams on Saturday. On Sunday, the showers and thunderstorms will move into parts of the Central/Southern Appalachians and the southern Mid-Atlantic. The rain will also develop over parts of the Northeast, with the rain changing over to snow on the precipitation shield's backside before ending. Elsewhere, a front will move onshore over the Northwest on Sunday, moving to the Northern Intermountain Region by Sunday evening. The system will produce rain and higher elevation snow on Sunday over parts of the Pacific Northwest. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php