Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Valid 00Z Tue Mar 30 2021 - 00Z Thu Apr 01 2021 ...High winds and widespread fire danger are expected to continue this evening across much of the central CONUS... ...Moderate to heavy rain will once again affect the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys beginning Tuesday... A low pressure system and a potent cold front sweeping across the central and eastern U.S. over the next couple of days will cause a myriad of weather hazards both ahead of and behind it. As the deep surface low moves across south-central Canada through early Tuesday, the tight pressure gradient will lead to continued high winds for northern/central portions of the Rockies and Plains. These winds in excess of 60 mph could lead to downed power lines and treacherous travel especially for high profile vehicles. Ahead of the cold front, much above normal temperatures and dry conditions should continue to combine with the high winds and create dangerous fire weather conditions through this evening. A large Critical Risk of fire weather is in place from the Storm Prediction Center, along with Red Flag Warnings widespread across the Plains toward the Mississippi Valley. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are also in effect for many areas. The fire weather threat is expected to shift into Southern California, the Southwest, and the Southern High Plains on Tuesday ahead of the cold front. As the cold front moves into the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday, moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico is expected as a warm front slowly lifts north into the Southeast. The moisture will help fuel showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front from the Ark-La-Tex north and eastward. With a couple of inches of rain possible, and considering that portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys saw flooding just a few days ago and streamflows and soil moisture remain much above normal, a Slight Risk of flash flooding is in place for portions of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee Tuesday into Tuesday night. Rain and thunderstorms are forecast to spread toward the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday as the front moves east, with localized flooding possible. Some severe weather cannot be ruled out with these thunderstorms, and currently the Storm Prediction Center has Marginal Risks outlooked for Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere, some snow is expected for the Northern and Central Rockies through Tuesday just behind the lead cold front and also in the vicinity of a secondary cold front. Most areas should see light amounts of snow, though 4+ inches of snow is possible in the higher terrain of the Central Rockies, and snow combined with gusty winds could lead to reduced visibility. The Northeast could experience some gusty winds through this evening, but winds are already lessening and should continue to do so over the next few hours. Above normal temperatures in the central U.S. today will give way to temperatures 10-20 degrees below average Tuesday and Wednesday as the cold front sweeps through. Ahead of the front, warm temperatures can be expected for the East through midweek, while the West Coast sees a warming trend as well. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php