Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Mon Apr 05 2021 Valid 12Z Mon Apr 05 2021 - 12Z Wed Apr 07 2021 ...Rain and potentially severe thunderstorms are likely over parts of the central U.S., with snow across higher elevations of the Northwest... ...Continued much warmer than average temperatures in the western and central U.S. will support Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather... For the first part of the workweek, an upper-level trough/low is forecast to move through the Northwest and into the central U.S., which is expected to push a cold front forward and help a surface low consolidate over the central U.S. by Tuesday. This pattern will lead to rain and thunderstorms across portions of the Plains and Mississippi Valley over the next couple of days, becoming more widespread Tuesday. Today and tonight, Marginal and Slight Risks of severe storms are in place for the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley from the Storm Prediction Center. Chances for severe weather should shift southward Tuesday into the Central/Southern Plains, and toward the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Rainfall totals of a couple of inches are likely over the Northern Plains to Upper Midwest, and localized flooding or flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Lighter rain showers are also possible periodically farther east in the northern Mid-Atlantic region along a meandering front. Underneath the upper low, temperatures are expected to switch to cooler than average, and the low will provide lift for snow to form and fall over higher elevations of the Northwest. The highest snow totals could reach over a foot in the Wind River Mountains/Tetons and the Bighorn Mountains, with the Northern Rockies and the Black Hills seeing some enhanced snow amounts too. Another day of potentially record-breaking warmth is on tap today across the southwestern to north-central U.S., with temperatures nearing 100 degrees in the Desert Southwest and 80s as far north as South Dakota and Minnesota. The warmth should ease a bit on Tuesday as it shifts eastward, but remain above normal. The warmth combined with dry soils, low relative humidity, and gusty winds will lead to the potential for dangerous fire weather conditions. An Elevated Risk is delineated today across eastern Nevada and the Four Corners states, with an embedded Critical Risk in northeastern Arizona. Then on Tuesday, Elevated to Critical Risks are in place for parts of the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are also in effect for these areas. Additionally, an Elevated Risk for fire weather is in place today for southern portions of the Northeast and the northern Mid-Atlantic given dry and windy conditions. Meanwhile farther north in Maine, continued rain and snow are expected from wraparound moisture from a slow-moving surface low offshore in the Atlantic. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php