Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Mon Apr 05 2021 Valid 00Z Tue Apr 06 2021 - 00Z Thu Apr 08 2021 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Tuesday morning... ...Continued much warmer than average temperatures in the western and central U.S. will support Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather... A slow-moving front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley roughly southwestward to the Great Basin will creep eastward to the Great Lakes by Wednesday. A strong wave of low pressure will develop across the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley Tuesday evening into Wednesday evening. The Low will propel the southwestern parts of the front eastward to the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains by Wednesday evening. The system will then produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest to the Central High Plains overnight Monday. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Tuesday morning. The main hazards associated with the severe thunderstorms will be frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and hail. The severe thunderstorm threat will move southward along and ahead of the Central Plains boundary on Tuesday and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Additionally, rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Tuesday that will later expand into parts of the Mid-Atlantic overnight Tuesday into Wednesday evening. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average over the Northern/Central Plains and parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. These temperatures will bring the last day of record-breaking warmth across the southwestern to the north-central U.S., with temperatures nearing 100 degrees in the Desert Southwest and 80s as far north as South Dakota and Minnesota on Monday afternoon. The warmth should ease slightly on Tuesday as it shifts eastward but remains above normal. The warmth †combined with dry soil, low relative humidity, and gusty winds †will lead to the potential for dangerous fire weather conditions. An Elevated Risk is delineated today across eastern Nevada and the Four Corners states, with an embedded Critical Risk in northeastern Arizona. On Tuesday, an Elevated to Critical Risk is in place for parts of the Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are also in effect for these areas. Additionally, an Elevated Risk for fire weather is in place through Monday evening over the southern portions of the Northeast and the northern Mid-Atlantic, given dry and windy conditions. Furthermore, the upper-level energy associated with the system will produce snow over parts of the Northern Rockies overnight Monday into the Central Rockies and central High Plains on Tuesday into Tuesday night, winding down on Wednesday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php