Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Tue Apr 06 2021 Valid 00Z Wed Apr 07 2021 - 00Z Fri Apr 09 2021 ...Heavy rain and the potential for severe thunderstorms are expected for the central U.S. for the next couple of days... ...Several inches of snow are possible in and around Wyoming and western South Dakota and Nebraska through tonight... ...Critical Risks of fire weather are in place for the Southwest and Southern High Plains through Wednesday... ...Seasonably warm temperatures are forecast for the Midwest through Thursday... A surface low pressure system is forecast to move east across the Plains into the Midwest by Thursday. A trailing cold front will push to the southeast across the Central and Southern Plains, while a quasi-stationary front extends east across the Midwest and to the southeast across the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread heavy rain along with severe thunderstorms are likely with this system as it progresses east. Ahead of the cold front, the Storm Prediction Center has delineated a Slight Risk of severe weather for hail and wind threats over the Central Plains through tonight. The severe weather shifts to the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday with a Slight Risk of hail, wind, and tornadoes, and a Marginal Risk of these hazards extending to the northwest across the lower Missouri Valley. Training convection ahead of the cold front in the vicinity of the surface low may lead to 1 to 2 inches of rain through tomorrow morning across Kansas where there is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. Additionally, 1 to locally 3 inches of rain will be possible for eastern South Dakota into the Upper Mississippi Valley near the stationary front through Thursday. Farther south, some areas in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys could receive a couple of inches of rain through Wednesday night. A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the potential of localized flooding or flash flooding given the wet ground conditions. Behind the surface low pressure system, the associated upper-level low will cause below normal temperatures and provide lift for snow to develop in the Northern/Central Rockies and Central High Plains through tonight. Higher elevations of the Black Hills could see 6+ inches of snow, while lower elevations of the Central Rockies and Central High Plains could see some snow, but lighter amounts. Winter Storm Warnings are in place for the Black Hills, with Winter Weather Advisories in place for portions of southern Montana, eastern Wyoming, northwestern Nebraska, and southwestern South Dakota. In the Southwest and Southern High Plains, warm temperatures are forecast along with gusty winds and low relative humidity values, and this combination will lead to the potential for dangerous fire weather conditions. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Critical Risk of fire weather for most of New Mexico as well as portions of southeastern Colorado and western Texas through tomorrow morning, and widespread Red Flag Warnings are in effect as well. Elevated to Critical Risks are once again in place for much of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Wednesday. Ahead of the Central U.S. storm system, warmer than average temperatures are expected for much of the contiguous U.S. Behind the system, underneath the upper low, cooler than average temperatures are forecast for parts of the north-central U.S. Cooler temperatures will also overspread the Northwest behind a cold front by Thursday as the next storm system moves eastward. The highest temperature anomalies are forecast for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, with highs around 15 to 25 degrees above normal through Thursday. Elsewhere, some light rain and occasional thunderstorms are possible along the stationary front across the Mid-Atlantic. The Northwest can also expect an increasing chance for precipitation Wednesday into Thursday as the next frontal system moves eastward. Over a foot of snow is forecast for the Cascades for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Putnam/Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php