Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Wed Apr 07 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 07 2021 - 12Z Fri Apr 09 2021 ...Heavy rain and the potential for severe thunderstorms are expected for the central U.S. for the next couple of days... ...Snow is likely in the Cascades and Northern Rockies as frontal systems pass through... ...Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather remain in place in and around New Mexico... A surface low pressure system is forecast to move slowly through the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley over the next couple of days, sweeping a cold front slowly eastward across the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and toward the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Widespread moderate to heavy rain along with severe thunderstorms are likely with this system ahead of the cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has delineated a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe weather for tornado, wind, and hail threats centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley for today into tonight. Some locations in that region could also receive a couple inches of rain, and given the wet ground conditions there, localized flooding and flash flooding are possible through tonight. As the cold front pushes slowly eastward, the Southeast and Tennessee Valley could see increasing chances of rain and storms on Thursday. Rain and thunderstorms are also likely farther north of the low across the Upper Midwest where draping stationary fronts reside through the next few days. Then on Friday, the south-central to southeastern U.S. could once again see severe thunderstorms and heavy rain causing flooding, as rain spreads toward the Eastern Seaboard as well. In the northwestern U.S., upper-level energy and frontal systems are expected to move through today into Thursday, which will produce cooler than normal temperatures there as well as precipitation chances. Snow totals should be highest in the Washington Cascades, which are forecast to see over a foot of snow mainly through tonight, while the Northern Rockies can expect up to 6 inches of snow in higher elevations. In the Southwest and Southern High Plains, warm temperatures are forecast along with gusty winds and low relative humidity values, and this combination will lead to the potential for continued dangerous fire weather conditions. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Critical Risk of fire weather for portions of New Mexico today, with an Elevated Risk for southeastern Arizona, much of New Mexico, and western Texas, and Red Flag Warnings are in place for New Mexico and southern Colorado. Additionally, an Elevated Risk is in place for north-central Montana today. For Thursday, conditions are still favorable for fire development in and around New Mexico, and an Elevated Risk is again in place. In general, most of the contiguous U.S. should see above normal temperatures over the next few days, with the exceptions being the Northwest (as mentioned) and central portions of the Plains and Mississippi Valley underneath the upper low. The Great Lakes region can expect high temperatures to be around 15 to 25 degrees above normal today, and a few daily records could be set. The Desert Southwest and southern Texas will experience temperatures in the 90s and nearing 100 degrees over the next few days. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php