Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 AM EDT Thu Apr 08 2021 Valid 12Z Thu Apr 08 2021 - 12Z Sat Apr 10 2021 ...Heavy rain/flooding and severe thunderstorms are expected for the south-central to southeastern U.S. Friday and Saturday... ...Snow is likely in the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains, with another round in the Northwest by Friday night... ...Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather remain in place for the Southwest to Southern High Plains... A surface low pressure system is forecast to continue to move slowly to the northeast through the Upper Midwest over the next couple of days, spreading rain and possibly thunderstorms to the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley, with some showers spreading toward the Mid-Atlantic as well. However, the more impactful rain and thunderstorms are likely to be farther south across the southeastern quadrant of the U.S., as frontal systems meander in the area and Gulf of Mexico moisture increases Friday and Saturday. On Friday and Friday night, an Enhanced Risk of severe weather is delineated by the Storm Prediction Center for the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley for tornado, wind, and hail threats. During that timeframe, flash flooding is also a possibility there, and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is in place. Severe weather and flash flooding are again possible on Saturday, with the threats shifted a bit eastward toward the Southeast ahead of a cold front. In the northwestern U.S., precipitation is forecast along with cooler than normal temperatures as upper-level energy and frontal systems continue moving eastward today. Snow totals of several inches are expected for the Northern Rockies, with some snow toward the Black Hills as well. Then, precipitation chances increase again late Friday into Saturday for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies as another cold front comes through. In the Southwest and High Plains, warm temperatures are forecast along with gusty winds and low relative humidity values, and this combination will lead to the potential for continued dangerous fire weather conditions. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Elevated Risk of fire danger in and around New Mexico today, with a Critical Risk in place for western Texas on Friday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of the Four Corners states and the Central High Plains as well. In general, most of the contiguous U.S. should see above normal temperatures over the next few days, with the exceptions being the Northwest and northern/central portions of the High Plains, as well as the Middle Mississippi Valley today underneath the upper low. The Great Lakes region can expect high temperatures to be around 15 to 25 degrees above normal again today, and a few daily record highs could be set. The Desert Southwest and southern Texas will experience temperatures in the 90s and nearing 100 degrees over the next few days. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php