Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 409 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 23 2021 - 12Z Sun Apr 25 2021 ...There is an Enhanced risk of Severe Thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains on Friday... ...There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys on Friday... ...Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue from the Southwest into the Southern High Plains on Friday... Low pressure over the Southern Plains will move eastward to off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Sunday. The system will produce severe thunderstorms and heavy rain from the Southern Plains to the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic. The SPC has issued an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains on Friday into Saturday morning. The main hazards with these storms will be frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There is an added risk of a 10% or greater probability of two-inch or larger hail over parts of central Texas and Oklahoma. Additionally, the WPC has issued a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys on Friday into Saturday. The thunderstorms will produce heavy rain with scattered flash flood areas possible. The most vulnerable places will be urban areas, roads, and small streams. A second front over the Upper Midwest will move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes by Sunday. The system will produce rain over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast through Sunday. The storm will also produce light snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes from Friday evening into Sunday morning. Meanwhile, upper-level energy and troughing will produce light snow over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains into the Central Rockies on Friday that will end by Friday evening. Furthermore, additional upper-level energy will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Friday evening into Saturday. The developing front will move from the Northwest to the Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies to the Great Basin and Southern California by Sunday. The system will produce rain and higher elevation light snow over parts of the Northwest/Northern California to the Northern Rockies/Great Basin starting overnight Friday into Sunday. The Southwest, Southern Rockies, and Southern High Plains will be dry. Gusty winds and low relative humidity have prompted the SPC to issue an elevated/critical risk of fire weather from northern Arizona/southeast Utah to the Southern High Plains, including much of New Mexico and western Texas, on Friday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php