Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Valid 12Z Sat Apr 24 2021 - 12Z Mon Apr 26 2021 ...There is an Enhanced risk of Severe Thunderstorms and a Slight risk of Excessive Rainfall over parts of the Southeast and the Central Gulf Coast through Sunday morning... ...Rain and snow across parts of the West through Monday... ...There is an Elevated to Critical risk of Fire Weather from the Southwest to the Southern High Plains... Low pressure and associated fronts will move from the Southern Plains/Central Gulf Coast to off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Sunday. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast through Sunday morning. The SPC has issued an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over Southeast and parts of the Central Gulf Coast through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with the severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail with a 10% or great probability of two-inch or greater over parts of the Central Gulf Coast, and tornadoes. There is a 10% probability of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes over parts of the Central Gulf Coast to the Southeast. Additionally, the WPC has issued a slight risk of excessive rainfall over the same area over the Central Gulf Coast to parts of the Southeast, likewise through to Sunday morning. By Sunday morning, the showers and thunderstorms will move off the Southeast Coast. Furthermore, the rain will move into parts of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday into Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a second front over Upper Mississippi Valley will move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes by Sunday morning and off the Northeast Coast by Monday. The storm will bring rain and light snow to parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Saturday, with rain moving into the Lower Great Lakes by Sunday morning. The rain will expand into the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic by Sunday afternoon ending over the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening and the Northeast on Monday morning. The western U.S. will have a deep area of upper-level energy moving across the region that will produce rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest/Northern California into the Northern Rockies on Saturday. The rain and snow will expand into parts of Central California and the Great Basin on Sunday, showing signs of weakening by Monday morning. Overnight Saturday, a wave of low pressure will move eastward out of the Northern Rockies to the Northern/Central Plains by Sunday evening, deepening by Monday morning. The system will produce rain and light snow over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. The rain and light snow will continue over the Upper Midwest into Monday morning. Meanwhile, the southwestern U.S. looks to remain dry through Monday. Low relative humidity and gusty winds from the approaching upper-level troughing will lead to ongoing fire danger for the Four Corners states into western Texas. A Critical Risk of fire weather is in place on Saturday for southeastern Utah, with Elevated Risks stretching into the Southern Rockies and southeastern Nevada. On Sunday, the Critical Risk will expand into northwestern Texas, with an Elevated Risk extending a little farther east into Texas. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php