Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Valid 00Z Thu Apr 29 2021 - 00Z Sat May 01 2021 ...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rain likely for the Southern Plains and portions of the Mississippi Valley through at least Friday, strong to severe thunderstorms also possible from the Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... ...There is a chance for record-breaking high minimum temperatures over the East and below-average temperatures over the Southern Rockies/Southwest into the Central High Plains... A slow-moving front, spanning from the northern Mid-Atlantic westward to Michigan and then southwest to the Central/Southern Plains, will be the focus for organized thunderstorms through the end of the week. SPC has identified portions of the Texas/Oklahoma to southern Illinois/western Kentucky, as well as areas adjacent to Lake Erie, as having at least a Slight Risk for severe storms. The main hazards with the severe thunderstorms will be frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Much of this same area will likely have excessive rain and increasing flooding potential - WPC has a Moderate Risk area for extreme northeast Texas to northwest Arkansas with a broad Slight Risk from south-central Texas to southern Indiana. The heavy rain associated with the thunderstorms will produce numerous areas of flash flooding over this region. Many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The risk for sever storms and excessive rainfall will carry over to Friday as the front continues to progress eastward. In the warm sector, south of the front, there is a chance for record-breaking high minimum temperatures over the East into Thursday. Meanwhile, under the upper-level low over the Four Corners Region, rain and higher elevation snow will develop over parts of the Central/Southern Rockies and the Southwest ending on Thursday morning. Additionally, under the upper low, temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average on Wednesday. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php