Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 348 AM EDT Sun May 02 2021 Valid 12Z Sun May 02 2021 - 12Z Tue May 04 2021 ...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible across the lower Mississippi Valley today... ...Advancing cold front to bring the threat of flash flooding and severe weather across the central High Plains today and into the Ohio and Middle Mississippi valleys on Monday... ...Late-season heavy snow to impact the northern/central Rockies through Monday... After multiple days of heavy rain across southern Texas, the upper-level low and warm front responsible will drift north today and into the lower Mississippi Valley. Although the overall weather system will be weakening, heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will still remain a concern. Over an inch of rain could lead to flash flooding from southeast Louisiana to southern Alabama. This area has experienced double its normal rainfall over the last month, which will likely amplify the flood threat. WPC has issued a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the region, with Flash Flood Watches in effect as well. Regarding the potential for severe weather, SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of the lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are all possible through this evening. Meanwhile, a spring cold front traversing the midsection of the country will bring plenty of active weather from the Ohio Valley to the central Rockies through the beginning of this week. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon along the frontal boundary. A few storms could turn severe and produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. By tonight, slow moving thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding across portions of the central Plains. At the same time, the higher terrain of Wyoming and Colorado will have snow to contend with. Upwards of 7 to 14 inches of snowfall are possible across the highest peaks of northern Colorado by Monday evening. Winter Storm Watches have been issued. A separate system entering the northern Rockies on Monday evening could bring additional high elevation snow showers. As the aforementioned cold front progresses southeast Monday and Monday night, showers and thunderstorms are expected to extend throughout the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi valleys, as well as into adjacent sections of the southern Plains. Severe weather will be the biggest concern across the region, with destructive hail and damaging wind gusts possible. SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for Monday that stretches from southwest Ohio to northeast Oklahoma. Overall, temperatures are forecast to rise above average across much of the country today, with the northern High Plains being the only major exception. The advancing cold front will quickly drop temperatures to around 10 to 20 degrees below average on Monday across the central Rockies and central/southern High Plains. High winds and low relative humidity found ahead of this frontal boundary could produce critical fire weather today across eastern Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php