Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 416 PM EDT Mon May 03 2021 Valid 00Z Tue May 04 2021 - 00Z Thu May 06 2021 ...There is an Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms and a risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains and the Southeast through Wednesday morning... ...Wet snow over parts of the Rockies and Northern Plains... A slow moving front extending from the Northeast to the Upper Great Lake to the Southern Plains advances to the East Coast by Wednesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front as well in the warm sector over parts of the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday evening into Wednesday. The SPC has issued an Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with the thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gust, hail, and a few tornadoes. A region over southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Texas will have a 10% or greater probability of developing EF2-EF5 tornadoes. A larger area will have a 10% or greater probability of severe wind gust of 65 knots or greater. About the same area will have a 10% or greater probability of two-inch diameter hail or larger through Tuesday morning. Furthermore, the SPC has issued a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday morning. The main hazards will be frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gust, hail, and a few tornadoes. There is also a risk of excessive rain fall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains. The heavy rain associated with the thunderstorms may produce isolated areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. On Tuesday the Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms moves eastward to parts of the Tennessee Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Simultaneously, there is a Slight risk of excessive rainfall. The heavy rain will produce scattered areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams being the most vulnerable. On Wednesday, the severe threat lessens over parts of the East Coast and the excessive rainfall risk is localized at most. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough will develop over the Rockies. The energy will produce wet snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies as rain moves into parts of the Central Plains overnight Monday. On Tuesday morning, the wet snow will wind down over parts of the Central Rockies as more wet snow and rain develops over the Northern Rockies. On Wednesday, rain and wet snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains, changing over to all rain and moving into the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php