Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 352 AM EDT Tue May 04 2021 Valid 12Z Tue May 04 2021 - 12Z Thu May 06 2021 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding likely across the Deep South today... ...Unsettled weather to be found throughout much of the eastern U.S. until a cold front exits the region on Wednesday... ...Dry and unseasonably warm temperatures continue in the West... The main weather story for today is located across the Deep South, where severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are likely to cause impacts. A cold front responsible for the active weather currently stretches from the Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains. Several areas of showers and thunderstorms are already found ahead of this frontal boundary, with new convection expected later today as it progresses east-southeast. Ample moisture ahead of this cold front will allow for thunderstorms to strengthen rapidly and produce downpours capable of dropping several inches of rain. This amount of rain in a short amount of time can lead to rapid water rises in low-lying areas. Additionally, some locations across the Deep South have experienced a wet spring thus far; therefore, additional rain may magnify flooding concerns. WPC has highlighted portions of southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama as having a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding. Instances of flash flooding are also possible farther north and into the Tennessee Valley. Along with heavy rain, several thunderstorms traversing the Deep South will have the capability of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across the Deep South and lower Tennessee Valley. Damaging wind gusts are the most likely hazard associated with the clusters of developing thunderstorms, especially from southern Mississippi into west-central Alabama. Areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be found across much of the eastern United States today as a warm and humid airmass remains in place. There is an outside chance a few of these storms could turn severe in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. By Wednesday, the aforementioned cold front will swing through the East Coast and usher in much cooler and drier weather, with the only remaining showers lingering across northern New England Wednesday night. Throughout western and central sections of the country, a weak impulse of upper-level energy will cross the Northern Rockies today before entering the central Plains on Wednesday. Light rain and mountain snow will accompany the system. Meanwhile, no precipitation is expected across the West as upper-level ridging remains situated over the region. High temperatures are forecast to reach the 80s and 90s (10 to 20 degrees above average for this time of year) across the Desert Southwest and San Joaquin/Sacramento valleys today, with even warmer temperatures expected on Wednesday. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php